Before you eat, you have to set the table. That’s what we will do right now and get to the main course. This meal leaves no room for dessert.
It does leave room for you to think long and hard about the next 5-25 years of your life and those around you.
Simply put, there is not a single industry that won’t be drastically changed.
Ok, so you might be saying ‘I get the point’ Good, I hope so. If so, what are you doing about it?
Are you like some who will read the above and be of the belief that ‘It won’t happen to me’ or ‘Great, what does this have to do with me’? I say this because 9 out of 10 people I talk to say they one of those 2 things. Especially teachers.
The big question you should be asking is what financial preparations should I be making if a year or two down the road when I am replaced? Or how about, what on earth is the government going to do with all those people who are going to be obsolete?
How will this effect the energy sector when people are not using cars for their primary purpose of getting to and from work?
I am going slide in a small beef I have right now. We can see clearly that millions (not an overstatement) of jobs are going to disappear, virtually overnight. We have seen that the energy sector workers are just short of begging for the government to develop resources in order for them to be able to work.
This of course involves building pipelines to get product to port (for countries that don’t even need this product) Or, of course building something like Site C so those people can ‘have jobs’ for our ‘strong economy’
I am not one of those ‘dirty jobs’ vs. ‘clean jobs’ people that uses these terms to create division. When ALL long haul truckers and mining operations truckers are gone…how many Site C’s will we need to build? (without them)
What I am getting at is, when waiters are replaced by iPads (and they will be) do we use government money and pass laws to build restaurants for them?
Do we build banks for tellers that aren’t need to count cash (or really any function at all?) Do we build more law offices for lawyers that are getting replaced? Do we do this to ‘create jobs’ for the millions lost?
Are the massive efficiencies that are coming forward going to have a drastic effect on already sinking electrical demand and oil/gas demands? Are things moving so fast that it is virtually impossible to catch up rightly? Is it possible that what is coming will forever change the economic landscape?
Are we properly gauging global demographics in our understanding of energy needs moving forward?
Keep in mind one thing, if you still don’t believe what is coming is coming. If you still don’t believe something like a drastic drop in commodity prices (like what will continue to happen with gold) will force companies to look for lower costs to produce.
Do you really believe if you cost $50 000/year + benefits+ days you don’t show up for work+ that you can ‘only’ work 8 hours a day+ workplace injury/insurance costs and so on that if something costs a fraction of the cost, has no pension liabilities, can work 24/7, log, track and store data and do 2-10 times what you can do and doesn’t spend half their working time on a cell phone texting non work related junk, you won’t be replaced with them?
The very second you cost $1 more than your replacement, you are going to be replaced.
We need only look at the Temporary Foreign Worker programs, Visa programs in the USA, Free Trade Zones, Outsourcing to China, Vietnam… wherever.
Production costs are exploding. Taxes, Utilities, ‘Fight for $15’ and so on. This is a huge component that is forcing companies to become leaner.
Now, your replacement is here, viable, available, cheaper and more productive.
Even if we didn’t want to believe this harsh reality we would only need to look at the Trillions being poured into this sector by both government and industry.
If we don’t even want to try and crystal ball the future, as shown above, we need only look at right now. Even if that is not able to get past our cognitive dissonance that our employer/govt ‘really cares’ about us, we need only look at the past couple years.
All those factors point to the granddaddy of them all:
Without the AI factor, our pensions are imploding. Just like AI, what I think catches a lot of people off guard is that they believe it just can’t happen. AI is part of what WILL make it happen. Again this is a mathematical certainty already without AI being factored in.
I talked to a firefighter when I was out on walk the other day. I asked him about his pension. He refused to believe that the city, province whoever would simply just ‘take it’
‘On June 22, 2016 Bill C-15 became law along with its controversial “Bail-In Regime”. In the crash of 2008 governments “bailed out” banks with billions of dollars. The next time around banks will be permitted to seize your deposits and exchange them for shares, shares in a failed bank.’
Of course I was wrong, way off, and it was impossible. I mentioned to him that I couldn’t understand how he believed his pension is not something the government would go after… but a direct bail-in to go into your bank account is 100% legal. (and will be used soon as real estate collapses)
I mentioned that Police and Firefighter pensions are in trouble ALL OVER the place. Of course the reply is ‘what does that have to do with here’
He said ‘It’s my money’ I said ‘Great, isn’t the money in your bank account yours’
The cognitive dissonance was apparent. 7 of 10 people don’t even have $1000 to their name in all their bank accounts.
So they would go after everyone’s empty bank accounts… but not TRILLIONS sitting in pension funds?
‘Um, I thought this was about AI’ Yes, it is.
Think: What happens when Baby Boomers are ALL retiring at the same time, drawing on their pensions, while no one is replacing the money they are taking out?
What happens when Police and Firefighters (and other public sector employees) realize the gig is up, see that their pension is Grossly Underfunded (even when using fund manager false return math) and start withdrawing lump sums?
What happens when those funds have to sell GOVERNMENT BONDS because they are the lowest returning investment and stocks are going to be where money rotates into?
This is already happening. Remember that ‘Star of Fiscal Prudence’ Norway? Well, they see the writing on the wall. They realize a few things:
1. That government debt is the RISKIEST investment moving forward.
2. That stocks will generate better returns (and much needed returns) over the next few years, considering that interest rates are low (but set to explode)
3. As rates rise, older bonds with lower returns (interest payments) will lose value as higher interest rate (better return) bonds become more attractive.
4. As rates rise NEW DEBT will cost more, further burdening already BANKRUPT governments who will NOT be able to pay the interest costs, thus forcing higher taxes to pay for things like? PENSION LIABILITIES.
So, let’s see if this is happening in the real world. Are we seeing losses and rotation out of government debt? Hmmmmmm….
Yep, that happened. That is real. Hint: It will keep on happening as we move forward. As was in another post:
So, are you prepared for this? Probably not. Because NO ONE in finance or government are talking about this.
How or why is this happening? Do we see major players in this game ‘adjusting’ their investment philosophy? Yep:
Will other funds follow suit? ABSOLUTELY!
(if you are looking for the reason USD denominated stock are STILL soaring and will continue to do so, this is it)
Why? Well, the math says they MUST. What kind of math are we talking about? Let’s look at the worlds 5th/6th largest economy, the one with the highest taxes in the USA, the one that is now introducing a Methane Tax on top of Carbon Taxes. Perhaps there is ‘reason’ why?
If you are in Canada, stop laughing, it is coming here also as governments spiral to bankruptcy everywhere. Note ‘cut’ means TAX.
Now, might we be able to gain some insight into the ‘truth’ behind all these new ‘planet saving’ taxes?
$93 000 PER HOUSEHOLD. (FYI the upper case letters indicate that this is an issue)
It gets better (or worse) When you realize EVERY STATE IN THE UNION is in a similar boat:
This is a good one. 157% increase in underfunded liabilities… in 8 years.
Where’s the connection? Right here:
This is Calpers. This is just one tiny, tiny little example of the interconnectedness of these pensions. More importantly that they all own each others countries debts/bonds.
What happens when Emerging Markets default on their payments because if US interest rate hikes, USD continuing to go upwards and lack of demand for energy products (which is what funds almost entirely many of these countries)
What happens when people start RUNNING from this debt, which forces rates up higher and causes more defaults? (hint, it will)
So, someone please tell me… if 40% of the businesses are going to be gone who is going to be going to work, using goods, generating sales tax receipts for the treasury?
Who is going to be paying into the pensions to be able to buy more government debt (vs have to sell at loss to pay out lump sums or even just regular payments)?
Do you know that most states/jurisdictions have laws that say that the jurisdiction CANNOT declare bankruptcy to avoid pension payouts/liabilities? Take Illinois for example:
(this is also why people are fleeing states like California and Illinois because they are being taxed into oblivion to pay for these liabilities, which further erodes economic activity which further reduces treasury receipts)
DO YOU KNOW OF ANY NEW CRIPPLING TAXES THAT ALL GOVERNMENTS ACROSS THE GLOBE ARE PUSHING RELENTLESSLY FOR?
(the extra large letters, in red, mean that this is something to think about, perhaps just a little bit)
So, the point is, it is already this bad without AI being a big factor. To get back to our Police and Firefighters aspect, we can see indeed this will be a fire that firefighters will not be able to put out.
It is spreading rapidly and this is how this stuff starts. Recall the sub prime crisis. No one cared until a few people started asking questions and now the same thing is happening in pensions. Keep in mind all of the just below (and more) happened in a very short time window (like weeks)
And now it has moved to Fort Worth:
Fanning the flames:
Recall: “What does that have to do with here”
Take your geographical distance from these 2 places out of the equation. This is irrelevant. As we saw with sub prime, it didn’t matter where you lived, you got burned.
This will be no different.
Understand that ALL public employees will be looking that this soon enough. If you are a public sector employee, near retirement, no matter where you are or the ‘good shape’ of your pension, I suggest you do the same. I can guarantee the guy at the cubicle next to you is already.
For those not in the public system, realize the private side is about the same (despite what you are being told) and keep in mind, the private side, more than the public side is dumping people as fast as possible for AI. Do you know that preparations are ALREADY in place to STEAL private pensions?
If you are on the private side YOU will be on the hook for these public pensions via property tax increases (that will cripple an already topped Real Estate market) We will all pay in taxes some new (think the true purpose of Carbon taxes, Methane taxes and so on) Not to mention bailing out banks (again) for their risky mortgage loans when they knew full well the energy sector is/was in trouble and that China will soon stop outflows.
The reason why demand is dropping for all things is because of these taxes, because the governments are dead broke and will support any new tax, pension plundering, bank bail ins moving forward.
And to put into perspective the ‘money’ that millennials will have to put into pensions, while not working (because there are no jobs) will be made even harder because of this, which of course, you will also be asked to bail out:
$17 000 000 000 000 (trillion) in student debt, by 2030, this is also assuming at today’s interest rates.
With so many issues converging together at this exact time, you need to face reality. You need to prepare yourself for the inevitable. This is what is happening in Texas, they have figured out the money is virtually gone. They woke up too late. They trusted the fund managers and the government to ‘keep them safe’
This is a deadly mistake. There is almost nothing the finance industry and government haven’t been able to completely screw up. They sacrificed pensions by keeping rates low (which did nothing but fuel more debt and will cause a global real estate crash and emerging market bond crash)
This is coming extremely fast. We have the warning signs now. Math, reality, common sense are showing this to us. In fact, it is right in our face. The sooner we start to cope with this reality, the faster it will get solved.
To the government, we know you are lying, we know you are completely broke. We know why you need more air taxes and taxes on everything any one does.
We are sure you have your eyes dead set on our pensions, just like our bank accounts. We know you are salivating at the returns you will get on your stock portfolios when the private sectors can axe millions of jobs to boost margins. We also know are very near sighted and only thinking about the next election.
Most of all, WE KNOW YOU ARE BROKE, DEAD BROKE and DESPERATE.
We are sure you Democrats, Republicans, NDP, Conservatives and Liberals… will not bring it up until it is a real problem and you have to come in and ‘be the hero’ and tell us how ‘entitled’ we are and that we ‘all need to do our part’
When will you tell the truth about what is going on? When will you tell us the truth behind Universal Basic Income? When will you tell is the truth about why you are implementing Carbon Taxes, Methane Taxes?
When will you tell us the truth about why you are importing so many assets (‘refugees’) to pay for future liabilities via work… yet you know these people won’t have work (and neither will we)
Why aren’t you spending the war and ‘importing human resource’ money on shoring up our pensions?
Why is no one in the media doing their homework on this? Why is no one in Congress, Parliament or anywhere asking the tough questions?
To the public: Why do you still believe you won’t be replaced? Why do you still believe these people will have your money ‘when you retire’? How much money do you have for this inevitability when it comes?
Have you done your homework on what will happen when (not if) rates rise? Do you see the interconnectedness of pension plans owning of government debt (that cannot possibly be paid)? Do you really believe they are introducing all kinds of new taxes just to ‘save the world’?
When are you going to start asking your City Council, Fund Managers, Provincial, State, Federal Government for answers? What happens if Real Estate and the Commodity Sector continue their slump? What happens if (when) gold keeps falling? What happens to our food costs when the USD soars as emerging markets scramble for USD to pay their interest payments in USD?
Do you know what happens when Emerging Markets default on Debts? Are you aware of the global pension confiscations going on RIGHT NOW? Are you aware many countries are increasing retirement age?
Do you know how horrific your countries demographic issue is? Are you still buying the ‘humanitarian crisis’ BS? What are you going to do/say when the debt of the ENTIRE EU drifts towards being completely worthless?
What will people say when they realize that the EU itself and North America own massive amounts of this debt in their pension funds?
When are you going to start demanding all this waste of our Liberal (or PC or NDP) government stop and the money go to your pension? When will people in BC wake up to the fact that Hot Money from China is NOT a strong economy? Do you know how much debt we are in Municipally, Provincially, Federally, Household, Credit Card?
Lastly, when are you going to wake up that the ENTIRE THING is an ILLUSION a scam and a rip off? That the money is gone?
I know when people wake up to the fact the money is gone. It usually happens at the exact moment when the money is gone. Don’t let yourself be one of them.
Unfortunately, you might be whether you like it or not.
I’m glad you made it this far, I know, lots of words. Guess what? Just about every aspect of your future depends on your understanding of this, so congratulations for taking the time to care about yourself. Please share with others as the sooner we all come to grips on this reality, the better we will be. You may be helping someone more than you think if you get this info into their hands!
Please use comment section if you seek further clarity on the above aspects of this crisis and I will do my best to answer.